Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 35.564273 38.469244 41.642674 45.393773 49.742564 54.671055 60.745799
2025-05-25 30.834288 34.582733 38.943806 44.482302 51.466904 60.187917 72.261762
2025-06-01 27.923557 32.030001 37.002377 43.625501 52.484667 64.374545 82.452245
2025-06-08 25.623596 29.857167 35.130889 42.404768 52.579803 67.044312 90.857567
2025-06-15 24.768818 29.349693 35.233884 43.670998 56.097771 75.032032 109.567265
2025-06-22 23.549164 28.238891 34.397142 43.483262 57.401299 79.810267 124.409287
2025-06-29 22.314376 27.002086 33.262810 42.709177 57.641989 82.814035 136.921801
2025-07-06 21.079977 25.679677 31.900599 41.446523 56.906387 83.930517 145.861654
2025-07-13 20.777106 25.596984 32.255989 42.775205 60.554054 93.764352 180.021187
2025-07-20 20.362053 25.323989 32.304241 43.611544 63.462459 102.907423 219.288293
2025-07-27 19.937720 25.006738 32.254663 44.269268 66.129732 112.286311 268.549407
2025-08-03 19.332842 24.395237 31.719095 44.065822 67.138873 118.205058 312.508666
2025-08-10 18.627004 23.625934 30.930912 43.426640 67.334093 122.560603 358.362765
2025-08-17 17.919435 22.825243 30.053989 42.571033 67.002712 125.589722 404.557802
2025-08-24 17.280500 22.097220 29.249163 41.774069 66.684726 128.612908 459.045898
2025-08-31 16.611841 21.298245 28.292923 40.637540 65.510727 128.940962 497.937261
2025-09-07 16.489823 21.309116 28.615283 41.816395 69.507297 146.146594 760.524558
2025-09-14 16.094645 20.888801 28.219878 41.641715 70.452204 154.202687 1003.444641
2025-09-21 15.615522 20.322434 27.559524 40.921091 70.032614 157.465828 1220.518722
2025-09-28 15.074015 19.643283 26.687089 39.744334 68.398415 155.850136 1329.498865
2025-10-05 15.026853 19.721957 27.064248 40.982583 72.792404 179.449361 3312.770411
2025-10-12 14.893133 19.659361 27.200226 41.761080 76.203517 201.902921 17674.985265
2025-10-19 14.734915 19.551158 27.251567 42.372820 79.307894 225.911457 NaN